EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Forecast – September 29, 2017

The EURUSD pair bounced back in a steady manner during the course of trading yesterday, something which we had pointed in our forecast yesterday. We had said that the rebound of the dollar had become exhausted and this opened the possibility of the euro taking advantage of it and moving higher. The pair was also supported by some choppy news from the US and this further fueled the upmove during trading yesterday.

EURUSD Moves Steadily Higher

The US GDP came in at a slightly better than expected value of 3.1% but this was largely brushed aside during trading as the pair bounced from the 1.1710 region once again and moved higher and close to the 1.18 region where it was met with some large selling. This region is now expected to offer a lot of resistance and the key for a further upmove would be the region between 1.18 and 1.1820. Only a break through this region is likely to keep the upmove intact and lead to further gains.

So far, this region has been able to hold the gains and there has been some strong battle going on between the bulls and the bears as they try to take control. Though the pair is lower now, we expect atleast one more attempt to be made at the range high during the trading today and it would be interesting to see how the dollar reacts. We do not have much fundamentals around, as we enter into the last day of the month but this should lead to flows from month end fixing and other such currency flows which could bring in volatility.

Looking ahead to the rest of the day, we do not have any major news from the US or the Eurozone which means that the month end flows are likely to dominate trading for today. This is unlikely to lead to too much volatility for trading today and hence expect some steady and slow consolidation with a bullish bias.