EUR/USD Forecast Dec. 20, 2011, Fundamental Analysis

The EUR/USD started the week with choppy tradingon reaction to the news from rating agencies and also pressured by the news of the death of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-il that left the dollar stronger on haven demand.

The euro remains weak in general with the start of a new week yet we can notice the quiet movement in the markets starting early ahead of the holidays. The pressure was seen from Fitch that downgraded the outlook for France to negative and also from Moody’s that cut Belgium’s credit rating yet the reaction was not very negative as the euro attempts to consolidate around $1.30.

We still have investors waiting on the finance ministers’ decision that are following up on the EU summit and the pledge to give the IMF 200 billion euros. The news might continue to drag into the session on Tuesday if they give any comment to ease the jitters though in general we expect trading to remain choppy and mixed.

Germany will release the Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for January at 07:00 GMT which is expected to slow slightly to 5.5 from 5.6.

Also at 07:00 GMT we have the Producer Price Index from Germany which is expected with 0.1% gain in November after 0.2% and on the year to ease to 5.2% after 5.3%.

At 09:00 GMT we have the IFO survey for December were the Business Climate index is expected to fall to 106.0 from 106.6, the Current Assessment index to fall to 116.0 from 116.7 and the Expectations index to fall to 97.0 from 97.3.

The United States will start the day at 13:30 GMT with the November housing starts which are expected with 0.3% rebound to 630 thousand from 628 thousand. Building permits are expected to drop 1.8% to 633 thousand from 653 thousand.