EUR/USD Forecast Dec. 29, 2011, Fundamental Analysis

Thin trading is still the theme in the market despite the Italian surprise seen with a really good auction on Wednesday.

Italy’s borrowing costs dropped dramatically from the previous auction as the nation sold 9.0 billion euros of six-month bonds with an average yield of 3.251% from the November 25 auction at 6.504%. Demand also outbid supply as the bid-to-cover ratio was also higher at 1.69 times compared to 1.4 times the previous auction.

Still the news failed to entice the pair as we can still see the low trading volumes and the fear over the outlook predominant as investors avoid taking any decision and likely to continue till the end of the week and 2011 unless we have surprises our way.

On Thursday Italy will sell more bonds and after the auction on Wednesday did not change the tight range trading we expect the same for Thursday.

Germany is set to release the preliminary CPI estimate for December where the index is expected with 0.8% rise on the month from a flat previous and 2.2% on the year from 2.4%. In EU Harmonized terms it’s expected to rise also by 0.8% from a flat previous and on the year to ease to 2.4% from 2.8%.

The euro area will release the M3 Money Supply for November at 09:00 GMT which is expected to hold at 2.8% in the three months to November and on the year to fall slightly to 2.5% from 2.6%.

The U.S. will start with the weekly jobless claims for the week ending December 24 at 13:30 GMT after last week they dropped to 364,000.

The Chicago PMI for December is due at 14:45 GMT and expected to ease to 60.2 from 62.6. At 15:00 GMT we have the pending home sales for November which is expected to ease to 1.8% after the 10.4% surge.