EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 11, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD gained 13 points but was moving between gains and losses as market focus remained on China. Negotiations with Greece seem to be moving smoothly as traders look forward to GDP and inflation data later in the week. The US is confused after the jobs report on Friday and ahead of a speech on monetary policy later today from Fed member Lockhart.

The German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has had enough. Greece, he says, cannot receive debt relief from European creditors because European official creditors are forbidden by European treaties to grant relief. But this cannot be true. Once a loan has been made, any lender exposes him to a default risk. The reason Schäuble is concerned is that the carefully constructed but fragile crisis management system—intended to insulate Germany from paying the bills of others—is now under threat.

The euro edged higher to $1.0966 from $1.0962.

“Players’ reaction to the US jobs data was mixed, but the figures were not so bad in general,” said Yosuke Hosokawa, head of FX sales team at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

“There may be some adjustment, but it is unlikely to see the current dollar-buying sentiment reverse ahead of the expected rate hike.

“Players will continue to focus on key US economic figures that give some sense of the timing for a rate rise,” he added.

The Labor Department said Friday the US added 215,000 jobs last month and that unemployment held steady at a seven-year-low rate of 5.3 percent.

The report brought average monthly jobs gains to 235,000 over the past three months, heightening expectations that the Fed could raise its near-zero federal funds rate as early as next month.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

This weekend and today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug