EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 12, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD added 42 pts today, the euro remains weak but the US dollar declined ahead of the FOMC meeting and tomorrow's

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 12, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD added 42 pts today, the euro remains weak but the US dollar declined ahead of the FOMC meeting and tomorrow’s statement. The greenback drifted lower allowing the euro to move upward. The pair is trading at 1.2983. There continues to be only a minor reaction to political uncertainty in Italy, with even bond markets quiet today. Data was encouraging, with an improvement in German ZEW, and a surprisingly strong economic sentiment component, rising to 6.9. Beyond the all important FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the end of week EU leaders’ summit will be important. The focus will be on negotiations over the banking union and single supervisory mechanism (SSM). An agreement would prove euro positive; however significant divergence in views would be a weight on euro into year-end.

Too many traders and analysts are ignoring the political upheaval in Italy and its ramifications on the EU. Traders are distracted at this moment with the FOMC meet and the US Fiscal Cliff, but will turn back to the eurozone by the end of the week as we can expect to see the euro return to negative sentiment as traders once again focus on the growing financial crisis and growth downward revisions.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data December 11, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 11	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-9%	-7%	-7%
	AUD	NAB Business Confidence	-9		-1
	EUR	French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
	INR	Indian Trade Balance	-19.3B	-19.1B	20.9B
	ZAR	South African Retail Sales (YoY)	1.00%	4.00%	4.70%
	HUF	Hungarian CPI (YoY)	5.2%	5.4%	6.0%
	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	6.9	-12.0	-15.7
	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	7.6	0.1	-2.6
	CAD	Trade Balance	-0.2B	-1.0B	-1.0B
	USD	Trade Balance	-42.2B	-42.6B	-40.3B

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 12	07:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%
	07:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%
	07:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)		0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.9%	1.8%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change	7.0K	10.1K
	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-2.5%
	13:30	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.5%	0.5%
	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-147.5B	-120.0B
Dec. 13	08:15	CHF	PPI (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.1%
	11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-16	-21
Dec. 14	07:58	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	45.0	44.5
	08:28	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	47.2	46.8
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.5%