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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 24, 2012 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD lost its momentum today, falling 39pips to trade at 1.3204. The euro is weak, down 0.3% from yesterday’s close
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD lost its momentum today, falling 39pips to trade at 1.3204. The euro is weak, down 0.3% from yesterday’s close and flirting with 1.32. The spike in risk aversion has weighed on EUR; however with positioning more balanced than it has been all year, the reaction has been relatively muted. On the fundamental side, there were a limited number of releases today. German GfK consumer confidence disappointed, dropping to 5.6, however there was no market impact. Traders view the recent euro rally as having gone too far; however a resolution to the fiscal cliff will likely push it temporarily higher. The market impact of the political negotiations surrounding the fiscal cliff should be taken by EUR traders as a warning for the type of uncertainty and market weakness that is likely to ensue in 2013 when European politicians will need to move forward on the future plans of the EMU.
Late yesterday House Speaker Boehner withdrew his Plan B as he could not muster support of his party. Mr. Boehner dismissed the House for Christmas Break. Leaving the fiscal problems unresolved.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Economic Data December 21, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Dec. 21 |
|
JPY |
|
|
BoJ Monthly Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.6 |
|
5.9 |
|
5.8 |
||
|
|
|
HUF |
|
|
Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) |
-3.70% |
|
-2.60% |
|
-3.10% |
|
|
|
|
|
PLN |
|
|
Polish Unemployment Rate |
12.90% |
|
12.80% |
|
12.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Business Investment (QoQ) |
3.8% |
|
3.5% |
|
3.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Current Account |
-12.8B |
|
-14.0B |
|
-17.4B |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
0.9% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (YoY) |
0.0% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
BRL |
|
|
Brazilian Unemployment Rate |
4.9% |
|
5.1% |
|
5.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core Durable Goods Orders |
1.6% |
|
-0.2% |
|
1.9% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
0.2% |
|
1.1% |
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.1% |
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
0.8% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.2% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP CAD and USD
There are no eco events on the calendar for Monday, December 24 and markets will be closed on Tuesday December 25th. Traders and politicians are expected to be out of their offices for the season with low volume and low volatility. The only global issue is the US fiscal deadline. I would like to wish all of my readers a safe and healthy holiday season and all the best in the new year.
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 21 16:30 Italy
Dec 26 01:30 Japan
Dec 27 10:10 Italy
Dec 28 10:10 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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