EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD climbed today to trade at 1.3038 pushing through the 1.30 level and now resting close to its support level

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD climbed today to trade at 1.3038 pushing through the 1.30 level and now resting close to its support level having reached a new one month high. Friday’s downgrade of the ESM and EFSF by Moody’s from Aaa to Aa1/negative has been ignored by markets as it was widely expected after France was downgraded. However, the market has reacted strongly to China’s expansionary PMIs and to the details behind the Greek debt buy-back plan, where Greece will offer a modified dutch auction for an exchange of up to €10bn for EFSF six month notes priced between 32.2% and 40.1% of face. In other news there is growing political uncertainty in Italy, with news that Silvio Berlusconi considers running under a new party. Finally, the Eurozone final November PMI was as expected at 46.2. In this environment EUR is strong and bond yields are lower, with the Greek 10-year down 172bpts to 14.1%, while Spanish yields are down 11bpts to 5.2%, and Italian yields down 8bpts to 4.4%. This week’s ECB meeting is expected to see interest rates left on hold at 0.75%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data December 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 03

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)

-2.9%

-2.5%

-0.3%

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.0%

0.4%

0.5%

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

50.50

50.40

JPY

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks

TRY

Turkish CPI (MoM)

0.38%

0.91%

1.96%

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY)

2.7%

4.1%

5.4%

CHF

SVME PMI

48.5

47.0

46.1

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

45.10

45.90

45.50

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI

44.5

44.7

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI

46.8

46.8

EUR

Manufacturing PMI

46.2

46.2

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

49.1

48.1

47.3

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index

52.80

51.3

51.7

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 05	10:00	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.2%
	13:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	125K	158K
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.7%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	-0.9%	-0.1%
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.5	54.2
Dec. 06	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)		0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Trade Balance	-8.8B	-8.4B
	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.1%	-0.1%
	11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	0.9%	-3.3%
	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
	12:00	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%
Dec. 07	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.7%	-1.7%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-0.2%	0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-0.6%	-2.6%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	-1.8%