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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 5, 2012 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD soared today to trade at 1.3090 adding 36pips today. Continued worries over the US economic situation continue

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 5, 2012 Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 5, 2012 Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 5, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD soared today to trade at 1.3090 adding 36pips today. Continued worries over the US economic situation continue to weigh on the DX. The risk of going over the ‘fiscal cliff’ and sparking a further rally in Treasuries and the USD among other safe havens into 2013 went up yesterday when the GOP presented a set of budgetary proposals as unlikely to pass as what the White House presented through Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner.  Republicans offered a $2.2 trillion package focused mainly upon three things.  One includes $800 billion in tax revenue over the next decade which is half of the White House’s proposal and thus unlikely to meet Obama’s demands.  This would be achieved through “pro-growth tax reform that closes special-interest loopholes and deductions while lowering rates.”  Lowering rates also won’t pass the White House, and there were no details on the tax breaks the GOP would change.  

European equities rallied more convincingly than US equities.  Global bond markets are little changed with US 10s cheaper by a basis point and each of gilts, bunds and Canada’s largely unchanged.  Currency markets are in risk-on mode with most major crosses higher. There was little eco data in the EU and not much on the news front which allowed the euro to gain on the weak dollar.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data December 4, 2012 actual v. forecast 

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 04

 

AUD

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-7.6%

 

-2.0%

 

9.5%

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Current Account 

-14.9B

 

-14.8B

 

-12.4B

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

3.00%

 

3.00%

 

3.25%

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

         

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Spanish Unemployment Change 

74.30K

 

90.50K

 

128.20K

 

 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian Industrial Production (YoY) 

2.3%

 

2.5%

 

-3.6%

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00%

 

1.00%

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 05

10:00

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

125K

158K

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.7%

1.9%

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

-0.9%

-0.1%

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.5

54.2

Dec. 06 

08:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

 

0.1%

 

09:30

GBP

Trade Balance 

-8.8B

-8.4B

 

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.9%

-3.3%

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B

375B

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

0.75%

Dec. 07

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.7%

-1.7%

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

-0.2%

0.1%

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-0.6%

-2.6%

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

-1.8%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 05 09:30 Spain 

Dec 05 10:30 Germany 

Dec 05 11:00 Norway 

Dec 05 15:30 Sweden 

Dec 06 01:30 Japan 

Dec 06 09:50 France 

Dec 06 16:00 US 

Dec 07 16:30 Italy

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