Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD soared today to trade at 1.3090 adding 36pips today. Continued worries over the US economic situation continue
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD soared today to trade at 1.3090 adding 36pips today. Continued worries over the US economic situation continue to weigh on the DX. The risk of going over the ‘fiscal cliff’ and sparking a further rally in Treasuries and the USD among other safe havens into 2013 went up yesterday when the GOP presented a set of budgetary proposals as unlikely to pass as what the White House presented through Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. Republicans offered a $2.2 trillion package focused mainly upon three things. One includes $800 billion in tax revenue over the next decade which is half of the White House’s proposal and thus unlikely to meet Obama’s demands. This would be achieved through “pro-growth tax reform that closes special-interest loopholes and deductions while lowering rates.” Lowering rates also won’t pass the White House, and there were no details on the tax breaks the GOP would change.
European equities rallied more convincingly than US equities. Global bond markets are little changed with US 10s cheaper by a basis point and each of gilts, bunds and Canada’s largely unchanged. Currency markets are in risk-on mode with most major crosses higher. There was little eco data in the EU and not much on the news front which allowed the euro to gain on the weak dollar.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Economic Data December 4, 2012 actual v. forecast
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
||
Dec. 04 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Building Approvals (MoM) |
-7.6% |
-2.0% |
9.5% |
||||
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Current Account |
-14.9B |
-14.8B |
-12.4B |
||||
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.25% |
|
|||
|
|
AUD |
|
|
RBA Rate Statement |
|
||||||
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Spanish Unemployment Change |
74.30K |
90.50K |
128.20K |
|
|||
|
|
BRL |
|
|
Brazilian Industrial Production (YoY) |
2.3% |
2.5% |
-3.6% |
||||
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 05 |
10:00 |
EUR |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
125K |
158K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
2.7% |
1.9% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.9% |
-0.1% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
53.5 |
54.2 |
|
Dec. 06 |
08:15 |
CHF |
0.1% |
||
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-8.8B |
-8.4B |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
0.9% |
-3.3% |
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
375B |
375B |
|
|
12:45 |
EUR |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
Dec. 07 |
09:30 |
GBP |
0.7% |
-1.7% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.6% |
-2.6% |
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
-0.5% |
-1.8% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 05 09:30 Spain
Dec 05 10:30 Germany
Dec 05 11:00 Norway
Dec 05 15:30 Sweden
Dec 06 01:30 Japan
Dec 06 09:50 France
Dec 06 16:00 US
Dec 07 16:30 Italy