EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis January 16, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD tumbled to 1.3607 giving up 71 points after US data all printed in the green today. Just minutes ago the US PPI, CPI and Empire Manufacturing index were released and all printed better than forecast with the Empire state coming in well above expectations. US Fed’s Plosser predicted joblessness will fall to 6.2% end-2014, with no need to change the 6.5 benchmark. Both Plosser and Fisher said yesterday they support the reduction of the QE3-program. The greenback began to rebound following better U.S. retail sales figures for December which eased concerns over poor job figures.

The January 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity expanded for New York manufacturers, and did so at a faster pace than in recent months. The general business conditions index rose ten points to 12.5, its highest level in more than a year. This is the first of the regional surveys for January.  The general business conditions index was above the consensus forecast of a reading of 3.3, and indicates faster expansion.  The internals were solid too, with new orders at a two year high, and the employment index increasing.

The US dollar is firmer across the board today as investors continue to regain confidence that the FOMC will proceed with its tapering efforts. The impression is that the strength of the retail sales stripped of autos, building materials and gasoline showed a unexpected resilience of the US consumer that does not mesh with the weakness in employment figures. The other thing to be said about US consumption is that it is apparently not being fueled by credit cards.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data January 15, 2014 actual v. forecast 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR, GBP and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Jan 16 09:30 Spain

Jan 16 10:30 UK

Jan 16 16:00 US

Jan 20 10:00 Slovakia

Jan 20 11:00 Belgium

Jan 21 01:30 Japan

Jan 21 09:30 Spain

Jan 22 10:30 Germany

Jan 23 01:30 Japan

Jan 23 10:03 Sweden

Jan 23 10:30 UK

Jan 23 11:00 France

Jan 23 16:00 US

Jan 23 16:30 Italy

Jan 23 18:00 US

Jan 24 16:30 Italy