EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis June 17, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD took a tumble as the dollar regained some of its shine after stronger than expected data pushed the euro down 71 pips to trade at 1.3303. The market place is focused on next Wednesday’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Fed Chairman Bernanke will also hold a press conference following the meeting. Traders and investors will be looking for fresh information from the Fed on when it will start to wind down its quantitative easing programs that have been in place for several years. The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that it believes the Fed will gradually introduce its so-called “tapering” program and that interest rates will remain low for some time to come.

Earlier today, data from the zone showed that employment fell to its lowest level of workers in seven years. Eurostat said the employment level in the eurozone fell by 0.5% in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter of last year. Eurostat also said the annual inflation rate in the eurozone rose to 1.4% in May versus 1.2% in April—still well below the European Central Banks target rate of 2% inflation.

Better than expected data included producer prices and a smaller than expected Q1 current account deficit helped the U.S. dollar extend gains recorded in Asia and Europe. U.S. producer prices rose for the first time in 3-months and the 0.5% headline increase contrasts with market expectations for a 0.1% increase and the sharper than expected decline in import prices reported yesterday. Excluding food and energy, producer prices rose 0.1%. This partly picked up the 0.4% increase in light truck prices. Consumer prices will be reported next week and are also expected to record their first increase in 3-month. The U.S. current account deficit in Q1 stood at $106.1 bln, about 5% smaller than expected and the Q4 gaps was revised to $107.3 bln from $110.4 bln. Taken together these two quarters is the smallest 6-month deficit since H2 2010.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.   

Economic Data June 14, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Jun 17 09:00 Slovakia

Jun 17 09:10 Norway

Jun 18 00:30 Japan

Jun 18 08:30 Spain

Jun 18 09:30 Belgium

Jun 19 09:30 Germany

Jun 19 09:30 Portugal

Jun 20 08:30 Spain

Jun 20 08:50 France

Jun 20 09:30 UK

Jun 20 09:50 France

Jun 20 15:00 US

Jun 20 15:30 Italy

Jun 20 17:00 US

Jun 21 15:30 Italy