EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 16, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Nov 13, 2015, 12:41 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD fell 21 points to 1.0795 as traders overlooked the wicked decline in GDP today on hopes that massive stimulus

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – July 4, 2016

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 16, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD fell 21 points to 1.0795 as traders overlooked the wicked decline in GDP today on hopes that massive stimulus from the ECB will turn around the ailing economy. The dollar came under further selling pressure on Friday as investors turned cautious over falling global stocks while awaiting fresh US data on retail sales later in the day.

The prospect of a gradual tightening of US monetary policy if and when the US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates has weighed on the US currency.

Eurozone GDP nudged up 0.3 per cent in the third quarter, missing expectations and marking a slight slowdown in growth from the previous three months. The bloc had expected to report growth of 0.4 per cent, which would have kept it flat with the second quarter.

The figures show that the Eurozone is growing slower than the US, suggesting that its recovery remains vulnerable to outside factors, despite the stimulus measures launched by the European Central Bank earlier this year.

Howard Archer, chief UK & European economist for IHS Global Insight, said: “No details have been released of the component breakdown of third-quarter Eurozone GDP, but based on the evidence from individual countries it does look odds-on that negative net trade was a significant factor limiting growth. This suggests that the help to Eurozone exports coming from the weak euro was countered by muted global growth.

“Domestic demand growth appears to have been generally decent across the Eurozone in the third quarter primarily due to healthy consumer spending as very low inflation/deflation across the Eurozone supported purchasing power.”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)	1.1%	1.0%	1.0%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	-0.4%	0.2%	0.2%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q3)	1.8%	1.8%	1.6%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%
EUR	GDP (YoY) (Q3)	1.6%	1.7%	1.5%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%
EUR	Trade Balance (Sep)	20.5B	18.2B	11.2B
USD	Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.3%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.4%	-0.3%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 16, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)			0.1%
JPY	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		-0.1%	-0.3%
JPY	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		-0.2%	-1.2%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)			0.9%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Oct)
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	0.2%
USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		-5.00	-11.36