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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 4, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Nov 3, 2015, 13:27 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD dipped 41 cents to trade at 1.0975 as the greenback gained momentum. Traders are waiting for Mario Draghi’s

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 4, 2015 – Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 4, 2015 – Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD dipped 41 cents to trade at 1.0975 as the greenback gained momentum. Traders are waiting for Mario Draghi’s speech this evening at which time markets are hoping that he will clarify his position on stimulus in December. US stock markets continued to gain which has supported the US dollar. There is testimony from Janet Yellen tomorrow and traders are hoping to see how hawkish her position is.

Investors are awaiting a speech that ECB President Mario Draghi is due to give in Frankfurt later on Tuesday. He’s given conflicting signals about quantitative easing in recent days. After the bank’s last policy gathering ended Oct. 22, he said officials would re-examine their stimulus policies when they meet in December. But he appeared to pull back from that position on the weekend, telling an Italian newspaper that the prospect of more QE remains an “open question.”

Still, a consensus is building that an expansion of the ECB’s bond-buying program will come eventually. And economists expect the monthly U.S. employment report on Friday will show an improvement, helping convince the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Europe’s shared currency has strengthened about 5 percent since reaching a 12-year low of $1.0458 in March, shortly after the ECB embarked on its 1.1 trillion-euro bond-purchase plan. The gains are a cause for concern for policy makers trying to stoke inflation, which some say will prompt Draghi to reiterate a pro-stimulus tone.

Markets are “potentially anticipating” Draghi to be dovish in Frankfurt, where he’s due to speak at a cultural event hosted by the ECB, said Jane Foley, senior foreign-exchange strategist at Rabobank International in London. “Euro-dollar was supported yesterday by the comments in the Italian newspaper, and the markets may be thinking that he might reinstate the tone of the comments that he made at the press conference in October.”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Culture Day

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Oct)

58.8

58.8

59.9

 

 

  NZD

 

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index

 

 

-3.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.9%

-1.7%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

   
                 

 

eurusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

 

 

4.100M

 

  NZD

 

Unemployment Rate (Q3)

 

6.0%

5.9%

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

 

-3.000B

-3.095B

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Services PMI (Oct)

 

50.8

50.5

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM)

 

-0.7%

-0.9%

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (Oct)

 

55.2

55.2

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

 

180K

200K

 

  USD

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

 

-41.10B

-48.30B

 

  USD

 

Services PMI (Oct)

 

54.6

54.4

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies  

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

3.376M

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks  

       

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov

Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction

 

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