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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 9, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Nov 6, 2015, 14:10 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD fell 147 points to 1.0736 as the US dollar rallied to its highest point in recent memory. The euro weakened

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – July 4, 2016

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 9, 2015 - Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 9, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD fell 147 points to 1.0736 as the US dollar rallied to its highest point in recent memory. The euro weakened after German Industrial Production printed lower than expected. The surge in jobs creation outpaced every expectation trigger a December rate increase.

The long-awaited increase in worker pay might finally be here. The average hourly wage paid to American workers rose 0.4% in October and posted the strongest 12-month gain since mid-2009. The typical worker earned $25.20 an hour in October, up 9 cents from the prior month. From October 2014 to October 2015, hourly wages rose 2.5%, the best year-over-year gain since the U.S. exited recession in June 2009. Annualized increases in pay had stuck to a tight range of 2.2% or less for the past five years, but economists have been expecting a faster increase amid a deep drop in unemployment and the creation of millions of new jobs. The amount of time people worked each week, meanwhile, was flat at 34.5 hours last month.

Companies added new jobs in October at the fastest pace of 2015, knocking the U.S. unemployment rate down to a seven-year low and setting the stage for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the year ends.

The economy generated 271,000 new jobs last month, with all but 3,000 coming in the private sector, the government said Friday, topping the MarketWatch-compiled economist consensus for 180,000 jobs created. Almost every major industry boosted payrolls.

Just as important, a long-awaited acceleration in wages might finally be underway. Hourly pay rose at the fastest year-over-year pace since the U.S. exited recession in mid-2009. Economists have been expecting a faster increase in pay amid a deep drop in unemployment and the creation of millions of new jobs over the past several years.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 5% from 5.1%, marking the lowest level since April 2008. More people also entered the labor force in search of work, a sign that jobs are available.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production (MoM)

-1.1%

0.5%

-0.6%

   

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.9%

   

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM)

0.8%

0.4%

0.4%

   

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

-9.35B

-10.60B

-10.79B

   

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU (Sep)

-2.08B

-3.30B

-3.84B

   

  USD

 

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct)

 0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

 271K

180K

137K

 

 

  USD

 

Participation Rate (Oct)

 62.4%

 

62.4%

 

 

  USD

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

 268K

165K

149K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate (Oct)

 5.0%

5.1%

5.1%

   

 

eurusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 9, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Sep)

 

20.0B

19.6B

 

 

  EUR

 

Eurogroup Meetings  

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction

 

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