EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 29, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 03:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD gave up a few points to trade at 1.26.95 after closing the day above 1.27 on Monday. There is no data and little

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 29, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD gave up a few points to trade at 1.26.95 after closing the day above 1.27 on Monday. There is no data and little news in the eurozone as traders concentrate on the US FOMC decision. The US dollar regained its overnight losses to trade in the green today.

In an effort to avert a fight with Europe, France said yesterday it would cut its budget deficit by an additional €3.6 billion, which would boost the country’s structural adjustment efforts next year to above 0.5%. Additional resources come from lower than expected costs on interest payments and contributions to the EU’s budget.

Today, the US eco calendar heats up with the durable goods orders, Conference Board’s consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed index and S&P CS house prices. In July and August, US durable goods orders showed strong month on month volatility due to large swings in Boeing orders. In September, volatility is expected to have reduced again and the consensus is looking for a 0.5% M/M increase. Also durable orders ex transportation are forecast to have increased by 0.5% M/M. After strong business confidence indicators of recent, we believe that the risks for the ex-transportation reading are on the upside. Transportation orders might be somewhat softer as vehicle orders slowed somewhat recently. US Conference Board’s consumer confidence weakened significantly in September as the poor unemployment figures weighed on sentiment. For October, a limited improvement from 86 to 87 is forecast.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)	2.3%	0.6%	1.2%
USD	Core Durable Goods		0.5%	0.4%
USD	Durable Goods Orders		0.5%	-18.4%
USD	S&P/CS HPI Composite –		5.8%	6.7%
USD	CB Con. Confidence		87.0	86.0

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Time	Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	JPY		Industrial Production		2.2%	-1.9%
	NZD		Business Confidence			13.4%
	CAD		RMPI (MoM) (Sep)		-1.0%	-2.2%
	USD		FOMC Statement
	USD		Fed Funds Target Rate		0.25%	0.25%