EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 31, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD continues to decline tumbling steadily against the growing US dollar, which was supported by the FOMC decision yesterday. The Fed ended the long term asset buying program and seemed to keep interest rate increase targets in early 2015. The dollar climbed to its highest in more than three weeks against a basket of currencies, buoyed by higher U.S. yields, after the Federal Reserve sounded less dovish on policy and more confident about the U.S. economic recovery.

U.S. rate futures shifted to show better-than-even chances of a rate increase in September 2015; previously, they had pointed to a rise in October. The Fed has held rates near zero since December 2008 and more than quadrupled its balance sheet to $4.4 trillion with three separate asset-purchase program.

The Fed ended its latest such program on Wednesday and in a statement noted the improving U.S. labour market. It dismissed recent financial market volatility, Europe’s stagnant economy and largely weak inflation outlook.

Economic sentiment in the euro area unexpectedly rose in October in a sign that the 18-nation region has moved one step away from a renewed economic downturn.

An index of executive and consumer confidence increased to 100.7 from 99.9 in September, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That’s the first gain in three months. Economist predicted a drop to 99.7, according to the median of 29 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.

Today’s report may help the region escape a spiral of declining confidence and falling output prompting businesses to delay investments because of the negative assessment of the situation by other companies.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 30 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 17:00 US Usd 29bn 7Y Notes

Nov 03 10:00 Norway T-bill auction

Nov 04 10:15 Austria RAGB auction

Nov 04 10:30 Belgium 3 & 6M T-bill auction (Feb & Apr 2015)

Nov 04 10:30 UK Auctions 0.5% 2050 I/L Gilt

Nov 05 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction

Nov 06 09:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Nov 06 10:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Nov 06 11:00 Norway Announces details of bond auction on Nov 11

Nov 07 16:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Nov