EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 8, 2016

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Published: Feb 5, 2016, 13:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD drifted down 12 points to 1.1195 after touching its highest level in months’ yesterday as weakness in the

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – July 4, 2016

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD drifted down 12 points to 1.1195 after touching its highest level in months’ yesterday as weakness in the greenback aided the euro climb as the likelihood of additional Fed increases in 2016 fell. The wait for U.S. monthly jobs numbers steadied stock markets on Friday and allowed the dollar to recover after what has so far been its weakest week in more than six years.

A solid non-farm payrolls report, might restore some optimism. The consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters was that 190,000 new jobs were created last month. “There is a general skepticism towards a proper rate hike cycle by the Fed – that’s been driving down the dollar (but)there’s probably not that much room left for dollar weakness,” said Commerzbank currency strategist Thulan Nguyen in Frankfurt. “A better labor market report could bring back some confidence in the rate cycle.”

After a weak service-sector business sentiment report on Wednesday and dovish comments from New York Federal Reserve chief William Dudley, U.S money markets now predict no rise in official interest rates this year. Earlier, the Federal Reserve’s own forecasting called for four increases.

That reflects growing concern the world is heading back into recession. But it also bolsters expectations for more support for global asset prices from stimulus measures by the world’s central banks.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)		0.5%	0.4%
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)		190K	292K
USD	Unemployment Rate (Jan)		5.0%	5.0%
CAD	Employment Change (Jan)		5.5K	22.8K
CAD	Ivey PMI (Jan)		50.0	49.9