EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – June 24, 2016

By:

Published: Jun 23, 2016, 09:19 UTC

The EUR/USD added 23 points as market stress begins to ease as voters in the UK seem to favor a IN vote. The euro is trading at 1.1320 after Janet

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – June 24, 2016

The EUR/USD added 23 points as market stress begins to ease as voters in the UK seem to favor a IN vote. The euro is trading at 1.1320 after Janet Yellen’s two days of testimony in which she indicated that there might only be one rate increase these years. On the other hand the IMF’s report questioned the strength of the US economy sending the dollar on a downward slope.

Preliminary data published by Markit showed the Eurozone economy decelerating slightly during June. The Markit Composite PMI index, which combines the manufacturing and services sectors, edged lower to 52.8 from 53.1 in May. This is the worst reading since January 2015. The consensus analyst estimate was 53.1, according to a Thomson Reuters poll.

Continued growth in German business activity, while slowing slightly, was countered by a small decline experienced in France for the first time in four months. The rest of the Eurozone grew at a slightly slower pace than that recorded in Germany.

German Markit data earlier this morning was mixed. The Services PMI fell to 53.2 in June from 55.2 in May.

The primary focus on investors’ minds in the next 24 hours is the outcome of the ‘Brexit’ vote, which is expected to cause a sharp spike in volatility across financial markets, especially those in Europe. The Euro strengthened after the data with EUR/USD at a peak of 1.1340, although moves were driven by UK referendum considerations and cross-related moves. German bund futures dipped lower to stand unchanged on the day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Country	Name	Volatility	Previous	Consensus
Germany	IFO – Current Assessment	2	114.2	114
Germany	IFO – Expectations	2	101.6	101.2
Germany	IFO – Business Climate	2	107.7	107.5
US	Durable Goods Orders CORE	2	0.4	0
US	Durable Goods Orders	2	3.4	-0.5
US	Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count	2	337