EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 7, 2016

The EUR/USD gained 9 points to 1.1157 matching the fall in the greenback after Eurozone GDP met forecast. Traders are sitting tight ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting and Mario Draghi’s press conference.  The final Eurozone Q2 GDP print of 0.3%, came in line with expectations, however the bulk of gains came from trade as a result of the recent decline in the Euro. The ECB may have trouble maintaining the recent rate of declines when it meets on Thursday, September 8, when the best announcement the market may hope for is for Draghi to extend the ECB’s bond buying into 2017.

The Eurozone provided details of its Q2 GDP, which was left unchanged from the initial of 0.3%. Exports contributed 0.5% percentage points, while household and government spending rose 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. The euro was uninspired and has been confined to a little more than a quarter of a cent through the Asian session and European morning. Resistance is seen in the $1.1180-$1.1200 area. The euro appears to be carving a shelf in front of $1.1100. In four of the past five sessions, it has approached but not broken below the 200-day moving average, which is found just above $1.1130 today.

The main US event today is the non-manufacturing ISM. The median guesstimate from the Bloomberg survey is 55.0, down from 55.5 in July. With a little more than half the data, economists remain confident that this quarter the world’s largest economy snaps a nine-month period of sub-2% growth.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 7, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 07 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 07 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 07 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn 0% Aug 2026 Bund

Sep 08 11:00 Ireland Holds bond auction

Sep 08 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction