EUR/USD Fundamental – November 18, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD dipped 22 points at the shared currency remains weak at 1.0665. Traders remain mixed after German ZEW data was a bit better but over economic sentiment remained depressed. Mario Draghi is spending the week on the talking circuit explaining the need for additional stimulus at the next ECB meeting. The dollar is again demonstrating strong positive momentum due to expectations of an interest rate hike already by December while the European Central Bank is only expected to expand its quantitative easing measures. The euro-dollar rates is at a six and a half month low while the dollar index tested new peaks last week and was at its highest level since January. The US Consumer Price Index will be published this week and a higher figure will reinforce expectations of a rate high next month with inflation being one of the important considerations in the decision.

Morale among German analysts and investors rose in November, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday, snapping a seven-month run of falls despite Friday’s attacks in Paris, which the poll partly took account of.

The ZEW think tank surveyed 225 analysts and investors, 40 of whom replied to the poll after Friday night’s suicide bombings and shootings in Paris that killed 129.

Mannheim-based ZEW said its monthly survey showed economic sentiment in Europe’s largest economy rising to 10.4 points in November from 1.9 in October. That was above the consensus forecast for a reading of 6.0 based on a poll conducted before the Paris attacks.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus