EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for June 26, 2017

The EUR/USD is trading lower and inside Friday’s range, suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility. Traders appear to be waiting for the release of the latest U.S. Durable Goods report later this morning.

Core Durable Goods Orders are expected to come in up 0.4%. Durable Goods Orders are expected to come in minus 0.5%.

Better-than-expected data will be bearish for the EUR/USD. Lower-than-expected numbers should pressure U.S. Treasury yields. This should help boost the Euro over the U.S. Dollar.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1118 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.1295 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 1.1295 to 1.1118. Its retracement zone at 1.1207 to 1.1227 is the primary upside target. For two days in a row, the 50% level at 1.1207 has stopped the rally.

The main range is 1.0839 to 1.1295. Its retracement zone is 1.1067 to 1.1013. If the selling is strong enough to take out 1.1118 then look for the break to extend into the retracement zone.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 1.1186 and the earlier price action, the direction of the EUR/USD will be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1207.

A sustained move under 1.1207 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a pullback into the long-term uptrending angle at 1.1159. If this price fails then look for a possible move into 1.1135 and 1.1118.

Overtaking 1.1207 will lead to a labored rally with the first target angle coming in at 1.1215. This is followed by the Fib at 1.1227. Taking out the Fib could trigger an acceleration into the downtrending angle at 1.1255. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 1.1295 main top.