Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Holds Above $4,100 Ahead of ECB and Fed

Gold News: ECB Decision and Fed Outlook Guide Metals

The gold and silver fundamentals are being heavily influenced by the market’s expectations surrounding the July 23 ECB Decision, and the July FOMC meeting next week. The ECB is likely to hold steady on its deposit rate of 2.25%, while the Fed is expected to do the same after recent US data revealed a resilient US economy. June retail sales increased 0.2%, June core retail sales rose 0.5%, and the June initial jobless claims dipped to 208k. All of these factors have led the market to believe that central bankers can remain patient in regard to future rate cuts.

Long term demand is also supporting gold, as per the World Gold Council. Central banks bought a net 41 tonnes of gold in May, led by Poland, with 18 tonnes and China, at 10 tonnes. China is continuing to add to its official gold reserves, which have now increased for 8 straight months, with gold holdings at 2,331 tonnes. Also, the World Gold Council’s annual survey noted that 89% of central banks expect global official gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months.

In the precious metal complex, fundamentals for silver are seen as constructive, with strong industrial demand from sectors including solar, electronics, and artificial intelligence. The Silver Institute expects global industrial silver demand to remain above 700 million ounces in 2026, helping to mitigate weak investment demand as higher-for-longer expectations on rates will continue to have a negative influence on precious metals.                                                                              

Gold Technical Analysis: Trendline Caps Rally While Bulls Defend Above $4,100

Gold is trading sideways just below a long-term descending trendline on the 4-hour timeframe, recovering slightly from the lows of July. XAU/USD was last trading at about $4,123, well above the 50-EMA ($4,068) and 100-EMA ($4,083) and thus retaining a slightly constructive tilt on the shorter-timeframe bias even if there is resistance in the vicinity.

The next resistance is the descending trendline at $4,148, followed by $4,200 and $4,246 levels. The next support is at $4,075, while the lower-level supports are at $4,020 and $3,957. The RSI is just below 63, indicating some bullish momentum, although the indicator also moves towards overbought territory.

Gold will need a strong breakout above the trendline to sustain a rally to $4,200. Otherwise, the trendline is likely to be a limiting factor for now. A minor pullback to the support at $4,075 can take place before buying resumes to make a move above the trendline.

Silver Technical Analysis: Double Top at Trendline Signals Near-Term Resistance

Silver rose from recent lows, but it’s having a hard time to break the resistance level of a downward sloping trendline in the 2-hour timeframe, where a potential double-top pattern has formed. XAG/USD was last trading at about $59.50, above the 50-EMA ($58.50) and 100-EMA ($58.34) indicators, but some of its momentum has cooled off after a recent sell-off in the metal.

The next resistance is at $60.75, followed by $61.88 and $63.18. The next support is at $58.73, while the lower-level supports are at $57.47 and $56.12. The RSI has moved to about 56 from overbought levels, indicating that some of the bullish momentum in Silver has cooled off.

A strong break above $60.75 will invalidate the double-top formation. The metal might move higher towards $61.88 levels after that. Otherwise, Silver may have to give back some of its gains and return to $58.73 before making any directional moves.