EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 28 – May 2, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The EUR/USD closed the week at 1.3836 gaining steadily all week after traders listened to more rhetoric from ECB officials and Mario Draghi. There were virtually no expectations of any shift by the US Federal Reserve at their policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

Another $US10 billion cut in the monthly bond purchase program is expected, with the Fed accepting that the economic stall during the winter was largely related to the repeated storms.

‘We anticipate a fairly uneventful Fed meeting … The Fed will not make any further changes to interest rates or its forward guidance,’ said economists at IHS Global Insight.

The euro edged higher against the US dollar amid positive economic data for both regions, while the yen also picked up a little strength. In Europe, the Ifo economic institute’s closely watched business climate index for Germany, the continent’s strongest economy, rebounded despite worries over the Crimea crisis.

The Ifo index rose to 111.2 points in April against 110.7 the month before, beating market expectations.

In the United States, a second strong month of durable goods orders in March gave more evidence that the economy is rebounding from its winter slump.

Durable goods orders rose by 2.6 per cent to $US234.8 billion ($A253.67 billion), after a 2.2 per cent rise in February, the Commerce Department said.

Both bits of data support unchanged courses at the respective central banks, though some analysts are still guessing that the European Central Bank could move towards more easing to fight off deflation pressures.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 1.4577 USD on Jul 03, 2011

Average: 1.3165 USD over this period.

Lowest: 1.2041 USD on Jul 24, 2012

 

Major Economic Events for the week of April 21-25 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and USD

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and the USD

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Apr 28 09:10 Italy

Apr 28 09:30 Germany

Apr 29 09:00 Norway

Apr 29 09:10 Italy

Apr 29 09:30 Belgium

Apr 29 09:30 UK 

Apr 29 14:30 UK

Apr 30 13:20 Sweden

Apr 30 15:00 US