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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The EUR/USD hit a high this week of 1.3308 but was not able to sustain above the price and tumbled by the end of the

EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast
EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The EUR/USD hit a high this week of 1.3308 but was not able to sustain above the price and tumbled by the end of the week to 1.3190 as traders turned to safe havens after the US fiscal deal in the US fell apart. Traders ran back to the USD and the JPY, even gold rebounded. US eco data was strong all week with housing, jobs, manufacturing and GDP being estimates. The impending fiscal cliff, as intended, has spurred some compromises; it also has demonstrated the steep challenges for the U.S. political system to undertake the multi-faceted, multi-year reforms necessary to place American governments on a more sustainable fiscal path.

Debate over taxes for high-income residents has largely precluded substantive discussion of the other measures required to narrow the federal revenue-expenditure gap in order to regain some fiscal flexibility Entering 2013, at least “a patch” is still possible to deal with the most urgent issues, such as extending the Bush personal income tax rates with a compromise on the top bracket.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Dec 21, 2012

1.3190

1.3237

1.3238

1.3159

-0.36%

Dec 20, 2012

1.3237

1.3214

1.3296

1.3204

0.18%

Dec 19, 2012

1.3213

1.3228

1.3308

1.3190

-0.12%

Dec 18, 2012

1.3229

1.3162

1.3238

1.3156

0.51%

Dec 17, 2012

1.3162

1.3166

1.3179

1.3144

-0.03%

Next week will see some key data releases for November in France. We’ll get a snapshot of the labor market on Thursday with the latest — often volatile — jobseekers report, to be followed by the consumer spending report on Friday. September and October brought the biggest increases in the number of people looking for work in France since April 2009, averaging roughly 46 thousand. We expect some moderation in the pace of deterioration on account of increased hiring for the holiday season, particularly in the retail and hospitality sectors, as well as some recent, albeit modest, improvement in the PMI surveys. Nevertheless, consumer and business confidence indicators have shown little to no improvement in recent months, and continue to portray decidedly downbeat sentiment.

I would like to take this time to express my best wishes to all of my readers during this holiday season and extend the best hopes for profitable trading in 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 17-21 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 17

00:01

GBP

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

-3.3%

 

-2.6%

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-8.1

-1.0

-5.2

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

1.3B

25.0B

3.2B

Dec. 18 

09:30

GBP

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

2.7%

2.6%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

2.6%

2.7%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

0.1%

-0.1%

0.1%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.3%

-0.5%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Current Account 

-107.5B

-103.4B

-118.1B

Dec. 19

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.4

102.0

101.4

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

107.1

108.0

108.1

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

97.9

96.3

95.2

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

19

25

33

 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.899M

0.875M

0.868M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.861M

0.873M

0.888M

 Dec. 20

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

0.3%

-0.7%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.9%

1.5%

0.8%

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

357K

344K

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

3.1%

2.8%

2.7%

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3225K

3199K

3213K

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

5.04M

4.87M

4.76M

 

15:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

8.1

-3.0

-10.7

Dec. 21

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.6

5.9

5.8

 

09:30

GBP

Business Investment (QoQ) 

3.8%

3.5%

3.7%

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-12.8B

-14.0B

-17.4B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

0.9%

1.0%

1.0%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

1.6%

-0.2%

1.9%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.7%

0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

0.3%

-0.1%

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

72.9

74.7

74.5

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 1.4940 USD on May 04, 2011.

Average: 1.3434 USD over this period.

Lowest: 1.1877 USD on Jun 07, 2010.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 28

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

0.1%

-0.2%

 

07:45

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) 

 

0.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

Dec 26 01:30 Japan 

Dec 27 10:10 Italy  

Dec 28 10:10 Italy  

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