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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, January 14 -18, 2013, Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The EUR/USD climbed close to 300pts this week after supportive comments from the ECB Director after the bank held
The EUR/USD climbed close to 300pts this week after supportive comments from the ECB Director after the bank held rates and policy. The euro captures the market attention this week making an incredible drive. Traders should watch for an adjustment and correction. The euro surged for a second day Friday, adding 0.7 US cents to Thursday’s two cent gain, pushed by what one analyst said was short covering and sustained by poor US trade data.
The European currency traded roughly around the break-even line of $1.3261 but then took a leap to the $1.3350 levels the morning opening — just 15 minutes before US trade data for November showed a wider-than-expected deficit that implied slower growth.
While a rise in the euro isn’t out of the ordinary lately, particularly after yesterday’s European Central Bank monetary policy decision and press conference, many euro crosses had settled in to a range in the 18 hours before the spike occurred.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Jan 11, 2013 |
1.3343 |
1.3273 |
1.3364 |
1.3249 |
0.52% |
|
Jan 10, 2013 |
1.3274 |
1.3054 |
1.3279 |
1.3039 |
1.69% |
|
Jan 09, 2013 |
1.3053 |
1.3083 |
1.3095 |
1.3037 |
-0.23% |
|
Jan 08, 2013 |
1.3083 |
1.3124 |
1.3140 |
1.3058 |
-0.30% |
|
Jan 07, 2013 |
1.3123 |
1.3068 |
1.3128 |
1.3017 |
0.42% |
Optimism that the world economy is improving pushed the euro to a nine-month high against the dollar Friday. On Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he expects the economy in the 17-country bloc that uses the euro to recover slightly in late 2013.
European markets will spend most of the week on the sidelines watching developments in the US and Asia. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will attend a number of election campaign stops in the lead up to the state election in Lower Saxony on Sunday January 20th which is viewed by many as a litmus test for her own election that must be held no later than October 27th particularly in terms of her weaker coalition partners that are faring poorly in the polls. European data risk will be focused upon EC add-ups for industrial production, trade, and CPI.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of January 7 -11 actual v. forecast for Euro, GBP, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jan. 07 |
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
1.3% |
0.1% |
1.6% |
|
Jan. 08 |
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.7% |
|
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
-1.8% |
-1.4% |
3.8% |
|
Jan. 09 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-9.2B |
-9.1B |
-9.5B |
|
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.2% |
1.0% |
-2.0% |
|
|
USD |
10-Year Note Auction |
1.863% |
1.652% |
|
|
Jan. 10 |
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
31.60B |
19.70B |
19.60B |
|
|
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
GBP |
BOE QE Total |
375B |
375B |
375B |
|
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.75% |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
371K |
365K |
367K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3109K |
3230K |
3236K |
|
Jan. 11 |
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
2.3% |
2.0% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-1.9% |
-1.8% |
-2.2% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
0.8% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.8% |
-0.9% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
-0.3% |
0.5% |
-1.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-2.4% |
-1.9% |
-3.0% |
|
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
-0.8% |
|
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-48.7B |
-41.3B |
-42.1B |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.3% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-0.3B |
-22.5B |
-172.1B |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 1.4940 USD on May 04, 2011.
Average: 1.3434 USD over this period.
Lowest: 1.1877 USD on Jun 07, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jan. 14 |
10:00 |
EUR |
0.1% |
-1.4% |
|
|
Jan. 15 |
00:01 |
GBP |
-8% |
-9% |
|
|
07:00 |
EUR |
0.9% |
0.9% |
||
|
07:00 |
EUR |
2.1% |
2.1% |
||
|
09:30 |
GBP |
2.7% |
2.7% |
||
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
||
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.5% |
0.2% |
||
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
|||
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.1% |
-0.8% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.3% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
2.0 |
-8.1 |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.4% |
1.5% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
2.1% |
2.2% |
||
|
Jan. 16 |
08:15 |
CHF |
3.2% |
2.7% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
2.2% |
2.2% |
||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
1.4% |
|||
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.3% |
|||
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.8% |
1.8% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.9% |
1.9% |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
1.3B |
|||
|
14:15 |
USD |
0.3% |
1.1% |
||
|
Jan. 17 |
08:15 |
CHF |
|||
|
Jan. 18 |
02:00 |
CNY |
20.7% |
20.7% |
|
|
02:00 |
CNY |
7.8% |
7.4% |
||
|
02:00 |
CNY |
10.1% |
10.1% |
||
|
02:00 |
CNY |
14.9% |
14.9% |
||
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.2% |
|||
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.1% |
0.9% |
Upcoming Government Bond
Date Time Country
Jan 15 10:10 Norway
Jan 15 10:30 Belgium
Jan 15 15:30 UK
Jan 16 01:30 Japan
Jan 16 10:30 Germany
Jan 16 15:30 Sweden
Jan 17 09:50 France
Jan 17 10:30 UK
Jan 17 10:50 France
Jan 17 16:00 US
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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