GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Continues to Pull Back

GBP/USD Forecast Video for 30.06.23

British Pound vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The British pound has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but then gave back gains rather quickly as it looks like we continue to see a lot of volatility. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a drop toward the 50-Day EMA, which is closer to the 1.25 level. In general, I think we’ve got a situation where the market will be very noisy, but I also recognize that we are very much in an uptrend. Because of this, and the fact that the Bank of England is so tight, I think it’s likely that we see a scenario that traders will still be attracted to the British pound in general. However, with the unemployment claims number being lower than anticipated, it has thrown a little bit of money back toward the US dollar as the Federal Reserve will have to remain tight for quite some time.

If we were to turn around and break above the top of the candlestick for the Thursday session, then it would open up the possibility of a move to the 1.2750 level, which was the top of the Wednesday candlestick. Above there, then we test the highs again, as we have seen quite a bit of upward pressure over the longer term. Whether or not that continues remains to be seen, but I do think that we have a situation where you still have to look at this through the prism of an uptrend. In fact, it’s not until we break down below the 200-Day EMA, closer to the 1.2350 level that I would consider this as a potential trend change.

In the meantime, I suspect a lot of people will simply be stepping to the side and waiting to find some type of value that they can take advantage of. With that in mind, a supportive daily candlestick will attract quite a bit of attention from me, and I would probably be a buyer. However, if we break down below the 200-Day EMA, it’s very possible that we could plunge toward the 1.1850 level next.

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