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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – December 1, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 30, 2015, 11:41 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD dipped 19 points as the US dollar continued to rally. This week’s data should help the pound recover to trade

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – December 1, 2015 – Forecast

gbpusd monday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD dipped 19 points as the US dollar continued to rally. This week’s data should help the pound recover to trade above the 1.50 level. The pound is holding at 1.5010 against the stronger US dollar. The pound’s fortunes are likely to diverge next week, pulled higher by the European Central Bank and dragged lower by the Federal Reserve.

The U.K. currency has weakened against both the dollar and euro in the past week, as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney emphasized that eventual interest-rate increases will be gradual, while data confirmed the pace of economic growth in the nation slowed in the third quarter. In the next week, currency traders may be more likely to take their cues from elsewhere, as the ECB meets amid speculation it will boost stimulus.

The pound has dropped more than 4 percent against the dollar since the middle of 2015 amid concern that U.K. economic growth is slowing and will weigh on the prospects for higher interest rates. Forward contracts based on the sterling overnight index average, or Sonia, aren’t fully pricing in a BOE interest-rate increase until after January 2017.

Meanwhile, the probability the Fed will increase its benchmark by its Dec. 15-16 meeting is 74 percent, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to testify to a congressional Joint Economic Committee on Dec. 3, and employment data due the next day will show further gains in the U.S. labor market, economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

ANZ Business Confidence (Nov)

14.6

15.0

10.5

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

1.3%

1.0%

-0.5%

   

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Oct)

0.7%

0.6%

0.8%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

-0.4%

0.4%

0.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Nov)  

 

0.1%

0.0%

   

 

gbpusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

AIG Manufacturing Index (Nov)

 

 

50.2

 

 

  JPY

 

Capital Spending (YoY) (Q3)

 

 

5.6%

 

 

  AUD

 

Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct)

 

-2.3%

2.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Current Account (Q3)

 

-16.5B

-19.0B

 

 

  CNY

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

49.8

49.8

 

 

  CNY

 

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

 

53.1

 

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

48.3

48.3

 

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Dec)

 

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

52.6

52.6

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Change

 

-5K

-5K

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Rate (Nov)

 

6.4%

6.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

52.8

52.8

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

54.0

55.5

 

 

  EUR

 

Unemployment Rate (Oct)

 

10.8%

10.8%

 

 

  USD

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

 

52.6

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing Employment

 

48.5

47.6

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

50.4

50.1

 

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Dec 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.75bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono

Dec 03 10:50 France

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.7bn 1%

Dec 07 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 09 Dec

Dec 07 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 Dec

Dec 08 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Dec 08 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Dec 09 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Dec 09 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Dec 10 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Dec 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

 

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