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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 13, 2012 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD climbed today to trade at 1.6144 on positive jobs data as the US dollar weakened ahead of the FOMC decision due
The GBP/USD climbed today to trade at 1.6144 on positive jobs data as the US dollar weakened ahead of the FOMC decision due later today. Sterling is up 0.2%, buoyed by the combination of an improvement in broader market sentiment and an above satisfactory employment data release. GBP continues to retrace its declines from September, having risen above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.6130. BoE policymaker Spencer Dale has spoken about elevated inflation and ongoing economic adjustments, and has echoed recent comments from Governor King regarding the limits to monetary policy. Dale’s confidence in the economic adjustment process suggests a desire for restraint in terms of providing further accommodation in the current environment, reinforcing our view that relative monetary policy is supportive of GBP.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 12, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Dec. 12 |
|
AUD |
|
|
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian Industrial Production (YoY) |
8.2% |
|
4.5% |
|
-0.7% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
|
1.9% |
|
1.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
|
0.0% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
ZAR |
|
|
South African CPI (MoM) |
0.20% |
|
0.20% |
|
0.60% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.8% |
|
1.9% |
|
1.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Claimant Count Change |
-3.0K |
|
7.0K |
|
6.0K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.4% |
|
0.2% |
|
-2.3% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.9% |
|
-0.5% |
|
0.3% |
||
|
|
|
MXN |
|
|
Mexican Industrial Production (YoY) |
3.6% |
|
3.6% |
|
2.3% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
|
|
0.25% |
|
0.25% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
FOMC Statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
10-Year Note Auction |
|
|
|
|
1.675% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Federal Budget Balance |
|
|
-150.0B |
|
-120.0B |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Dec. 13 |
08:15 |
CHF |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
-16 |
-21 |
|
|
Dec. 14 |
07:58 |
EUR |
45.0 |
44.5 |
|
|
|
08:28 |
EUR |
47.2 |
46.8 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
2.2% |
2.2% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
|
1.5% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 13 01:30 Japan
Dec 13 09:30 Spain
Dec 13 10:10 Italy
Dec 13 10:30 UK
Dec 13 16:00 US
Dec 13 18:00 US
Dec 14 11:00 Belgium
Dec 14 15:30 UK
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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