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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 14, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD dipped to trade at 1.6136, after the initial drop of the US dollar yesterday after the FOMC decision and the

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 14, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD dipped to trade at 1.6136, after the initial drop of the US dollar yesterday after the FOMC decision and the surprises in Mr. Bernanke’s presentation and the changes to Fed policy and guidance, traders are slowly recovering and pushing the dollar back upwards. The US dollar is slowly rebounding gaining against the pound and the turning the euro around. Traders took advantage of the elevated prices of the pound with the weak dollar to sell off and take profits as the year comes to an end.

Some strategists said sterling could strengthen against the dollar in coming weeks, however, if Bank of England policymakers hold off from signaling further easing in Britain.

Sterling dipped 0.1 percent to $1.6131, retreating from a six-week high of $1.6173 hit on Wednesday after the Fed said it would bolster its quantitative easing programme by $45 billion a month, on top of $40 billion the Fed is already buying in mortgage-backed securities.

The pound has rallied more than 2 percent against the dollar in the last month as markets positioned for more asset-purchasing from the Fed, prompting some investors to take profit on earlier bets that the pound would rise.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 13

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

2.75%

 

2.75% 

 

2.75% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

 

0.00% 

 

0.00% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-12

 

-16 

 

-21 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

-0.8%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.5% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

343K

 

370K 

 

372K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3198K

 

3210K 

 

3221K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

1.8% 

 

2.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.2% 

 

2.1% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 14

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

45.0 

44.5 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

47.2 

46.8 

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.2% 

2.2% 

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 14 11:00 Belgium 

Dec 14 15:30 UK 

Dec 17 10:10 Norway 

Dec 17 18:00 US 

Dec 18 01:30 Japan 

Dec 18 09:30 Spain 

Dec 18 10:10 Greece 

Dec 18 18:00 US 

Dec 19 18:00 US 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

 

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