Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD continues to climb hitting 1.6272 still off the recent high just under the 1.63 price range. The U.K. pound
The GBP/USD continues to climb hitting 1.6272 still off the recent high just under the 1.63 price range. The U.K. pound stayed higher against the dollar and was little changed versus the euro after a report showed retail sales were unchanged in November. Sales including fuel were unchanged from October, when they fell 0.7 percent, the Office for National Statistics said. The median forecast of 22 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.4 percent increase.
The strong pound is holding back the U.K. economy, the Bank of England said, in its starkest warning yet on Britain’s diminishing export prospects.
Although the sterling exchange rate remains well below levels seen before investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed in 2008, recent gains have been “unwelcome” and are eroding British firms’ competitiveness, according to the minutes of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee’s December policy meeting.
The pound has gained nearly 4% since the start of the year when measured against the currencies of the U.K.’s major trading partners, in part a reflection of investors fleeing the euro, according to the MPC. Sterling’s real exchange rate, which takes account of differences in prices with other nations, may be too high if Britain is to achieve a long-held ambition to rebalance its economy toward exports and eliminate a persistent current-account deficit, the minute’s record.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 20, 2012 actual v. forecast
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
Dec. 20 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
|
0.10% |
|
0.10% |
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
BoJ Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DKK |
|
|
Danish Retail Sales (YoY) |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
-1.8% |
||
|
|
HKD |
|
|
Hong Kong CPI (YoY) |
3.70% |
|
3.90% |
|
3.80% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.7% |
||
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.9% |
|
1.5% |
|
0.8% |
||
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.5% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
||
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.2% |
||
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
361K |
|
357K |
|
344K |
||
|
|
USD |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
3.1% |
|
2.8% |
|
2.7% |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3225K |
|
3199K |
|
3213K |
||
|
|
USD |
|
|
Existing Home Sales |
|
|
4.87M |
|
4.79M |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
|
|
-3.0 |
|
-10.7 |
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 21 |
07:00 |
EUR |
5.9 |
5.9 |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-14.0B |
-20.8B |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.2% |
1.8% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
74.7 |
74.5 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 21 16:30 Italy
Dec 26 01:30 Japan
Dec 27 10:10 Italy
Dec 28 10:10 Italy