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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 24, 2012 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD continued to decline throughout the day as Q3 month over month GDP came in under forecast disappointing markets

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 24, 2012 Forecast

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 24, 2012 Forecast
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 24, 2012 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD continued to decline throughout the day as Q3 month over month GDP came in under forecast disappointing markets which were offset by strong business investment data and current account figures. As traders shifted to risk aversion the US dollar and the JPY gained while most currencies declined along with equities. Sterling is down 0.2% vs the USD, with the decline driven primarily by risk aversion stemming from developments in US fiscal negotiations. Domestically, public borrowing figures were worse than expected and Q3 GDP was revised down marginally to 0.9% q/q. While GBP remains close to Wednesday’s high, movement above 1.6300 is likely to be limited given the considerable amount of resistance above this level. The GBP will close the week at the 1.6225 level.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 21, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 21

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.6

 

5.9 

 

5.8 

   

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) 

-3.70%

 

-2.60% 

 

-3.10% 

 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Unemployment Rate 

12.90%

 

12.80% 

 

12.50% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

3.8%

 

3.5% 

 

3.7% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Current Account 

-12.8B

 

-14.0B 

 

-17.4B 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.9%

 

1.0% 

 

1.0% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

4.9%

 

5.1% 

 

5.3% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders

1.6%

 

-0.2% 

 

1.9% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.2% 

 

1.1% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

0.8%

 

1.0% 

 

1.2% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP CAD and USD

There are no eco events on the calendar for Monday, December 24 and markets will be closed on Tuesday December 25th. Traders and politicians are expected to be out of their offices for the season with low volume and low volatility. The only global issue is the US fiscal deadline. I would like to wish all of my readers a safe and healthy holiday season and all the best in the new year.

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

Dec 26 01:30 Japan 

Dec 27 10:10 Italy  

Dec 28 10:10 Italy  

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