Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD continued to decline throughout the day as Q3 month over month GDP came in under forecast disappointing markets
The GBP/USD continued to decline throughout the day as Q3 month over month GDP came in under forecast disappointing markets which were offset by strong business investment data and current account figures. As traders shifted to risk aversion the US dollar and the JPY gained while most currencies declined along with equities. Sterling is down 0.2% vs the USD, with the decline driven primarily by risk aversion stemming from developments in US fiscal negotiations. Domestically, public borrowing figures were worse than expected and Q3 GDP was revised down marginally to 0.9% q/q. While GBP remains close to Wednesday’s high, movement above 1.6300 is likely to be limited given the considerable amount of resistance above this level. The GBP will close the week at the 1.6225 level.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 21, 2012 actual v. forecast
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
Dec. 21 |
|
JPY |
|
|
BoJ Monthly Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.6 |
|
5.9 |
|
5.8 |
||
|
|
HUF |
|
|
Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) |
-3.70% |
|
-2.60% |
|
-3.10% |
|
|
|
|
PLN |
|
|
Polish Unemployment Rate |
12.90% |
|
12.80% |
|
12.50% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Business Investment (QoQ) |
3.8% |
|
3.5% |
|
3.7% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Current Account |
-12.8B |
|
-14.0B |
|
-17.4B |
||
|
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
0.9% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.0% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (YoY) |
0.0% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
BRL |
|
|
Brazilian Unemployment Rate |
4.9% |
|
5.1% |
|
5.3% |
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core Durable Goods Orders |
1.6% |
|
-0.2% |
|
1.9% |
||
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
0.2% |
|
1.1% |
||
|
|
CAD |
|
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.1% |
||
|
|
CAD |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
0.8% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.2% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP CAD and USD
There are no eco events on the calendar for Monday, December 24 and markets will be closed on Tuesday December 25th. Traders and politicians are expected to be out of their offices for the season with low volume and low volatility. The only global issue is the US fiscal deadline. I would like to wish all of my readers a safe and healthy holiday season and all the best in the new year.
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 21 16:30 Italy
Dec 26 01:30 Japan
Dec 27 10:10 Italy
Dec 28 10:10 Italy