GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 13, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Monday is a very quiet day for economic news. Watch for a special EU meeting to handle the Greek Bailout

 06:45    EUR        French CPI (MoM)

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is currently down 1.5756. The greenback has been picking up strength all day against its trading partners. The euro continues to fall on Greek worries, as the EU sent the Finance Minister back to Greece with an incomplete agreement. The EU is demanding 100% compliance and institution of the package before they will consider the bailout. On the other hand the Greek Ministers only arrived with promises, which as all political promises have little value and multiple interpretations. The EU is demand that the austerity measures be passed by the Greek legislature.

In the US there was a slight wrinkle in todays economic news, as the US trade balance came off forecast, which is always possible after the holiday season, the Commerce Department reported the trade deficit widened in December, hitting $48.8 billion.

A gauge of consumers’ views on current conditions fell to 79.6 in February from 84.2 in January. Meanwhile, the index for expectations also declined, to 68 from 69.1.

Economic Data Thursday Feb 9, 2012 ( actual v forecast )                                                                                             

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17

Feb 13  10:10  Italy   BOT auction

Feb 13  10:10  Norway  T-bill auction

Feb 13  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Aug 2012 Bubill

Feb 13  12:00  Norway  Details bond auction on Feb 20

Feb 14  09:30  Netherlands Eur 3.0bn-4.0bn Jan 2017 DSL

Feb 14  09:30  Spain  12 & 18M T-bill auction

Feb 14  10:10  Greece  3M T-bill auction

Feb 14  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 14  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Feb 15  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 15  10:30  Portugal  Eur 1.5-1.75bn May & Aug T-bills

Feb 16  09:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Feb 16  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt

Feb 16  10:50  France  BTA/OATi auction

Feb 16  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb

22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23

Feb 16  18:00  US  Auctions 30Y TIPS