GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – July 16, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD dipped 12 points as the dollar gained. Today’s jobs numbers were lower than expected and a miss by average earning which came in at 3.25 against a forecast increase of 3.3% but still printed much better than last month.  UK unemployment increased and employment declined in the three months to May, data from the Office for National Statistics revealed Wednesday. At the same time, wages grew at the fastest pace in more than five years.

During the March to May period, the jobless rate calculated based on the ILO standards came in at 5.6%. The rate was forecast to be at 5.5%, the same as logged in the three months to April, which was also the lowest since April-June 2008.

However, the jobless rate was well below the 6.5% seen a year earlier, the statistical office said. There were 1.85 million unemployed people in the three months to May. This was 15,000 more than for the three months to February, the first quarterly increase since January to March 2013.

At the same time, employment decreased from the prior quarter. There were 30.98 million people in work, down 67,000 from the three months to February. This was the first quarterly fall in the number of people in work since February to April 2013.

In June, the number of people claiming jobseeker’s allowance increased by 7,000 from May, confounding expectations for a decline of 9,000, logging the first increase since October 2012.

At the same time, the claimant count rate held steady at 2.3% in June, as expected by economists.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jul 14 11:10 Holland Eur

Jul 15 11:10 Greece Eur

Jul 15 11:30 Germany Eur

Jul 15 11:30 UK Gbp 1.5bn

Jul 16 10:30 Spain Auctions 0.25%

Jul 16 11:10 France Eur 7-8bn

Jul 16 12:10 France Eur

Jul 16 17:00 US Details 10-year TIPs