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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – June 30, 2015 – Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD declined by 54 points to 1.5696 as Greek contagion infected the UK markets. There was no data today so the focus
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD declined by 54 points to 1.5696 as Greek contagion infected the UK markets. There was no data today so the focus has only been on headlines from the EU and Greece. Reuters said that British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Monday he thought it would be hard for Greece to stay in the single currency if Greeks voted to reject a deal from international creditors in a forthcoming referendum.
“If they vote no I find it hard to see how that is consistent with staying in the euro because there would be, I think, a very significant problem. But it’s for the Greek people to decide,” Cameron told BBC radio.
He said he wanted to see a deal struck between Athens and the EU for the sake of stability, saying the crisis showed the need for the bloc to be more flexible.
The GBPUSD took a hit this morning, largely on fallout from the euro but also as a technical correction unfolds. GBP/USD remains at 1.5717. Further downside is possible though the pair looks in better shape after the latest correction. This move took some of the more speculative money off the table. The MACD shows the pair as moderately oversold on the daily chart but the bullish cross of the 50 day and 200 day moving average means it is likely to be well supported. Cable should see support at the lower end of the 1.55 range, which marks the path of the moving average line.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
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Imp. |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
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|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-2.2% |
-0.8% |
1.2% |
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JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) (May) |
3.0% |
2.3% |
4.9% |
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
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Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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NZD |
Building Consents (MoM) (May) |
|
|
-1.7% |
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AUD |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
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|
0.6% |
|
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NZD |
ANZ Business Confidence (Jun) |
|
|
15.7% |
|
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|
AUD |
Private Sector Credit (MoM) |
|
0.5% |
0.3% |
|
||
|
EUR |
German Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
0.2% |
1.7% |
|
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CHF |
KOF Leading Indicators (Jun) |
|
93.6 |
93.1 |
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EUR |
German Unemployment Rate |
|
6.4% |
6.4% |
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GBP |
Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1) |
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|
1.7% |
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GBP |
Current Account (Q1) |
|
-23.3B |
-25.3B |
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|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) (Q1) |
|
0.4% |
0.3% |
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EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Jun) |
|
0.2% |
0.3% |
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|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate (May) |
|
11.1% |
11.1% |
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CAD |
GDP (MoM) (Apr) |
|
0.1% |
-0.2% |
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USD |
Chicago PMI (Jun) |
|
50.1 |
46.2 |
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USD |
CB Consumer Confidence (Jun) |
|
97.2 |
95.4 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 30 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Jun 29 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (Jun 2016) Bubills
Jul 01 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Oct 2020 Bobl
Jul 02 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
Jul 02 11:10 France Auctions OATs
Jul 02 11:30 UK Conventional Gilt auction
Jul 02 18:00 US Details 3/10 year notes, plus 30-year bond
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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