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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis March 14, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 23, 2015, 11:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD recovered 64 points to trade at 1.6684 as the US dollar took a strong decline in early trading as traders eye a

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis March 14, 2014 Forecast

gbpusd thursday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD recovered 64 points to trade at 1.6684 as the US dollar took a strong decline in early trading as traders eye a good deal of US data later in the session. The pound rose the most in a month against the dollar as speculation the Bank of England will increase interest rates allowed the currency to extend its world-beating rally.

U.K. government bonds were little changed before the nation sells 1.5 billion pounds ($2.5 billion) of inflation-linked debt due in November 2019 today. The yield difference between two-and five-year gilts climbed to the highest relative to Germany’s in more than four years. The dollar dropped against all of its 16 major peers today as Stanley Fischer, nominee to be Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s deputy, said in prepared remarks the U.S. economy still needs stimulus to combat unemployment.

With no fresh economic data releases yesterday, and none scheduled for today either, the Pound is finding it difficult to sustain its current levels against the majors. Although Sterling’s fluctuations have been relatively mild, they have invariably been negative over the last 24 hours, with traders appearing to have lost their taste for the Sterling currency. Bank of England policymaker Charlie Bean did his best to ensure this trend continued by stating that the Bank is in no rush to raise interest rates. Remember that FX markets are largely driven by interest rate projections and therefore any dovish sentiment is likely to have a negative impact.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data March 13, 2014 actual v. forecast

Cur.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

  GBP

RICS House Price Balance

45%

52%

52%

 

  AUD

Employment Change

47.3K

18.0K

18.0K

 

  AUD

Full Employment Change

80.5K

 

2.7K

 

  AUD

Unemployment Rate

6.0%

6.0%

6.0%

 

  CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)

17.9%

19.4%

19.6%

 

  CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)

8.6%

9.5%

9.7%

 

  CAD

New Housing Price Index (MoM)

 

0.3%

0.1%

 

  USD

Initial Jobless Claims

 

330K

323K

 

  USD

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.2%

-0.4%

 

  USD

Business Inventories (MoM)

 

0.4%

0.5%

 

  USD

Federal Budget Balance

 

-212.0B

-10.4B

 

 

GBPUSD(60 minutes)20140313122541

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Mar. 14

GBP

Trade Balance 

-8.60B

-7.72B

 

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.2%

 

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

82.0

81.6

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Mar 14 01:30 Japan

Mar 17 10:00

Mar 17 10:00 Slovakia

Mar 18 01:30 Japan

Mar 18 09:30 Spain

Mar 19 10:30 Germany

Mar 19 10:30 Portugal

Mar 20 09:30 Spain

Mar 20 10:03 Sweden

Mar 20 15:00 US

Mar 20 17:00 US

Mar 21 16:30 Italy

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