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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 15, 2015 – Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD added 23 points to trade at its highest level in several months. The pound reached 1.5768. The pound continues
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD added 23 points to trade at its highest level in several months. The pound reached 1.5768. The pound continues its politically-inspired rally as the jobs data revealed that unemployment continued to fall, as wage growth accelerated at its fasted pace since 2007. The rally brushed off the BoE’s inflation report that downgraded GDP projects, although these are now more in line with the market consensus.
The Bank of England (BOE) governor Mark Carney was on BBC radio on Thursday, saying that the weak UK productivity, one of the fallouts of financial crisis, will pick up modestly.
Carney also said the next move at the BOE is likely to be an interest rate hike. Carney expressed a possibility of higher interest rates in a year’s time. At the same time, Carney said the strength in the Pound is acting as a bit of a dampener on the UK economic growth.
The greenback continued to weaken on Thursday, sending a benchmark dollar index to the lowest level since late January as recent sluggish U.S. data prompt investors to rethink the timing of the first Federal Reserve rate hike.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
NZD |
Business NZ PMI (Apr) |
|
|
54.5 |
|
||
|
NZD |
Core Retail Sales (QoQ) |
2.9% |
1.5% |
1.9% |
|||
|
NZD |
Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) |
2.7% |
1.5% |
1.7% |
|
||
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance (Apr) |
33% |
22% |
22% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Friday, May 15, 2015
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
JPY |
BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
|
CHF |
PPI (MoM) (Apr) |
|
-0.1% |
0.2% |
|
||
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing |
|
5.00 |
-1.19 |
|
||
|
CAD |
Foreign Securities Purchases |
|
7.23B |
9.27B |
|
||
|
CAD |
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
|
1.2% |
-1.7% |
|
||
|
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
|
0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
||
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer |
|
88.6 |
88.8 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills
May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs
May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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