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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis May 23, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Jan 1, 2011, 00:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD declined to 1.5774. The continued strength of the USD is difficult for any of its partners to maintain any

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis May 23, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD declined to 1.5774. The continued strength of the USD is difficult for any of its partners to maintain any power. Although recently markets have become concerned with the overall health of the UK economy and its proximity and expose to risks from Europe. 

What little eco data that has been available has been fairly weak as the UK continues in a technical recession, while GBP is down 0.4 after softer than expected CPI 

The OECD decreases its growth forecast and warns of the potential spillover effects of Europe, the IMF has strong words, and the IIF suggests that Spanish banking sector loan losses could be as high as €260bn, Fitch downgrades Japan to A+, and the IAEA and Iran agree on terms for inspection.

Across the pond, there was some positive data from the US, where the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.62 million, from a downwardly revised 4.47 million in March, analysts had expected 4.6m. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data May 22, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 22

04:00

 

NZD

 

 

 

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.4%

 

 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

09:00

 

NOK

 

 

 

Norwegian GDP (QoQ) 

1.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.2% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

3.0%

 

3.1% 

 

3.5% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.6% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

May 23

8:00

EUR

 

Current Account

   

-1.3B

8:30

GBP

 

MPC Meeting Minutes

   

0-0-9

TBD

EUR

 

Industrial New Orders m/m

   

-1.2%

10:00

GBP

 

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

   

-8

TBD

GBP

 

Inflation Report Hearings

     

14:00

USD

 

New Home Sales

   

328K

14:30

USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

     

May 24

6:00

CHF

 

Trade Balance

   

1.69B

7:00

EUR

 

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

46.9

7:00

EUR

 

French Flash Services PMI

   

45.2

7:30

EUR

 

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

46.2

7:30

EUR

 

German Flash Services PMI

   

52.2

8:00

EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate

   

109.9

8:00

EUR

 

Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

45.9

8:00

EUR

 

Flash Services PMI

   

46.9

8:30

GBP

 

Retail Sales m/m

   

1.8%

8:30

GBP

 

Revised GDP q/q

   

-0.2%

8:30

GBP

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals

   

31.9K

8:30

GBP

 

Prelim Business Investment q/q

   

-3.3%

12:30

USD

 

Unemployment Claims

     

12:30

USD

 

Durable Goods Orders m/m

   

-4.0%

13:00

EUR

 

Belgium NBB Business Climate

   

-10.7

May 25

6:00

EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate

   

5.6

7:15

CHF

 

Employment Level

   

4.04M

TBD

ALL

 

G8 Meetings

     

13:55

USD

 

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

     

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Date  Time  Country 

May 23 09:10 Sweden 

May 23 09:30 Germany 

May 23 14:30 Sweden 

May 23 17:00 US

May 24 15:30 Italy

May 24 17:00 US

May 25 15:30 Italy  

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