GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 12, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 11, 2015, 12:32 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD recovered 49 points to trade at 1.5168 after Governor Carney spoke and the unemployment dipped lower than

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD recovered 49 points to trade at 1.5168 after Governor Carney spoke and the unemployment dipped lower than forecast. Average earnings were slightly lower than expected. Though UK unemployment fell to a lower-than-expected 5.3 per cent in the third quarter, the lowest level since the three months to April 2008, wage growth was just 2 per cent in September, a sharp slowdown from August’s 3.2 per cent growth and the weakest increase since February this year.

British Prime Minister David Cameron will say in a letter to the European Council president on Tuesday that his demands for EU reform are not “Mission Impossible” but rather the price leaders must pay if he is to keep Britain in the bloc. Cameron has promised a vote by the end of 2017 on whether Britain should stay in the EU, but the ballot is expected to come sometime next year. Many reckon that could cause enough political uncertainty to dent sterling and perhaps to force the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold.

The BoE last week gave no sign that it was in any hurry to raise rates, and revised down its inflation and growth forecasts.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	6.300M	0.500M	2.800M
AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	3.9%		4.2%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct)	10.2%	10.2%	10.3%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)	5.6%	5.8%	5.7%
GBP	BoE Gov Carney Speaks
GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep)	3.0%	3.2%	3.0%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Oct)	3.3K	1.5K	0.5K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Sep)	5.3%	5.4%	5.4%
EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Oct)			55.4
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Oct)		45%	44%
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Oct)		6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.0%	0.0%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		-0.1%	-0.5%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		270K	276K
USD	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)		5.370M	5.370M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		0.752M	2.847M
USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Oct)		-130.0B	91.0B