GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 20, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD gained 23 points against a weak dollar, but gains were limited due to weak retail sales and a speech from MPC member Broadbent. The pound is trading at 1.5258. The British government is banking on domestic consumers to spend their way out of the recent slowdown in the pace of economic growth.

September’s go-ahead showing of 5.9% from the shop sales number triggered a bout of strong support for the Pound in the markets. Today’s figure is anticipated to be slighter softer, with the consensus amongst analysts being for a print of 3.9%.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said sales volumes fell 0.6%, which followed a 1.7% rise in September when sales were helped by the Rugby World Cup. The monthly fall in food store sales was the biggest drop since May 2014. Retail sales volumes rose 3.8% compared with a year ago, compared with a 6.2% annual rise in September. Average shop prices, including petrol stations, were 3.3% lower in October than a year earlier.

The ONS said department stores and clothing also dragged on retail sales growth last month. However, sales volumes in the three months to October compared with the previous three-month period – seen as a better indicator of the underlying trend – rose 0.9%.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 20, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus