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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – October 13, 2015 – Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD gained 23 points to 1.5351 as the US dollar weakened. The pound is sitting tight otherwise ahead of major data
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD gained 23 points to 1.5351 as the US dollar weakened. The pound is sitting tight otherwise ahead of major data due this week including inflation and jobs numbers. Sterling has now recovered its losses on Friday. Sterling handed back all of its early gains on Friday after data showed Britain racked up an even larger than expected trade deficit in August, while construction output surprised by sinking in both annual and monthly terms.
The construction data, down 1.3 per cent on the year, were the latest to cast doubts on the pace of an economic recovery that had provoked expectations, now cooled, of a rise in interest rates around the end of this year.
Markets suggest the UK central bank will not boost its 0.5% main rate until late 2016 and its decision to hold fire yesterday was predicted by all 41 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
Forward contracts based on the sterling overnight index average suggest a full quarter-point increase won’t come until after November 2016.
In the minutes, the Bank of England said the UK economy is withstanding pressures from the slowdown in the global economy.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
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Cur. |
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Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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Canada – Thanksgiving Day |
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US – Columbus Day |
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Japan – Health-Sports Day |
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CAD |
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BoC Gov Poloz Speaks |
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
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Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Sep) |
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-1.0% |
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AUD |
NAB Business Confidence (Sep) |
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1 |
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CNY |
Imports (YoY) (Sep) |
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-15.0% |
-13.8% |
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CNY |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
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46.79B |
60.24B |
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CNY |
Exports (YoY) (Sep) |
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-6.3% |
-5.5% |
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EUR |
German CPI (MoM) (Sep) |
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-0.2% |
-0.2% |
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CHF |
PPI (MoM) (Sep) |
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-0.7% |
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GBP |
CPI (MoM) (Sep) |
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0.2% |
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GBP |
CPI (YoY) (Sep) |
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GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) (Sep) |
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0.4% |
-2.4% |
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EUR |
German ZEW Current Conditions (Oct) |
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64.9 |
67.5 |
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EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
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6.0 |
12.1 |
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USD |
Federal Budget Balance (Sep) |
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95.0B |
-64.4B |
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Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Oct 12 11:00 Norway Details bond auction on 14 Oct
Oct 13 09:00 Holland Holds bond auction
Oct 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Oct 14 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Oct 14 10:15 Norway Holds bond auction
Oct 14 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl
Oct 15 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones
Oct 15 09:50 France Auctions BTANs
Oct 15 09:30 UK 0.125% 2026 I/L Gilt auction
Oct 15 09:50 France Auctions OATi
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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