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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD added 17 points to trade at 1.5920 after unemployment fell to 6.0%.  Unemployment has continued to fall sharply

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD added 17 points to trade at 1.5920 after unemployment fell to 6.0%.  Unemployment has continued to fall sharply because slower job creation was dwarfed by a big quarterly rise of 113,000 in the number of economically inactive people, almost half of which is accounted for by a rise in the student population. The fact that the latest fall in unemployment has been driven by rising inactivity rather than job creation explains why the associated fall in the number of people unemployed and claiming job seekers allowance (JSA) is also much lower than in previous months.

The ONS said there were 1.97 million unemployed people, 154,000 fewer than for March to May 2014 and 538,000 less than a year earlier. This is the largest annual fall in unemployment on record. Records for annual changes in unemployment begin in 1972. The Office for National Statistics reports that average earnings in the UK rose by just 0.7% annually in the June-August quarter.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, added about 0.1 percent to 85.936, though it was still shy of a four-year high of 86.746 marked earlier this month.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Consumer Sentiment

0.9%

 

-4.6%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

0.5%

0.4%

0.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

1.6%

1.7%

2.0%

 

 

  CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (Sep)

-1.8%

-1.6%

-1.2%

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production

-1.9%

-1.5%

-1.5%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM)

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi 

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Average Earnings Index 

0.7%

0.7%

0.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count

-18.6K

-35.0K

-33.2K

 

 

  GBP

 

Unemployment Rate

6.0%

6.1%

6.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Core PPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Core Retail Sales

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

NY Empire State

 

20.50

27.54

 

 

  USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

-0.1%

0.6%

 

 

  USD

 

Business Inventories

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

Federal Budget

 

80.9B

-129.0B

 

 

  USD

 

Beige Book

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi

       

 

GBPUSD(15 minutes)20141015122115

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Business NZ PMI (Sep)

 

 

56.5

 

 

  EUR

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

0.7%

0.7%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.4%

0.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

290K

287K

 

 

  CAD

 

Manufacturing Sales

 

-1.6%

2.5%

 

 

  USD

 

Industrial Production

 

0.4%

-0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Phil Fed Manufacturing 

 

20.0

22.5

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23

 

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