GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD tumbled after the release of minutes from the MPC’s last meeting. The pound fell 90 points to trade at 1.6024.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD tumbled after the release of minutes from the MPC’s last meeting. The pound fell 90 points to trade at 1.6024. Sterling fell sharply against the dollar on Wednesday morning with the minutes from Bank of England’s (BoE) latest rate-setting meeting showing that members remain split on the future path of interest rates in the U.K.

Two members of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) again voted for an interest rate hike in October. Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty were the two to vote for the move, with the economists widely viewed as the most hawkish members at the central bank.

Many economists are still expecting a rate rise at some point in 2015, although Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdowne predicts that it will not happen until the latter part of the year.

“Given the deterioration we have seen in economic conditions, it is perhaps surprising they didn’t cross the fence and join the majority voting to hold rates at 0.5 percent,” he said in a research note. “The minutes note ‘little sign of future inflationary pressure’ and indeed inflation is forecast to fall further in the coming months.”

The minutes come as some members, including BoE Governor Mark Carney, have sounded a more dovish note amid market turmoil and growth downgrades from organizations like the International Monetary Fund

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Exports (YoY) (Sep)	6.9%	6.8%	-1.3%
JPY	Trade Balance (Sep)	-958B	-777B	-949B
AUD	CPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.5%	0.4%	0.5%
AUD	CPI (YoY) (Q3)	2.3%	2.3%	3.0%
GBP	MPC Meeting Minutes
USD	Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.2%	0.0%
USD	CPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	-0.2%
CAD	Retail Sales (MoM)		0.2%	-0.1%
CAD	BoC Monetary Policy
CAD	Interest Rate Decision		1.00%	1.00%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	RBA Governor Stevens
NZD	CPI (QoQ) (Q2)		0.5%	0.3%
CNY	HSBC Mfg. PMI		50.2	50.2
EUR	German Mfg PMI		49.5	49.9
EUR	German Services PMI		55.0	55.7
EUR	Manufacturing PMI		49.9	50.3
EUR	Services PMI (Sep)		52.0	52.4
GBP	BBA Mortgage		41.5K	41.6K
GBP	Core Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.2%	0.2%
GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	0.4%
GBP	CBI Industrial Trends		-4	-4
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		282K	264K