GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – April 25, 2016

The GBP/USD climbed 221 points moving to 1.4344. Currency News reported that BoE Governor Mark Carney has recently defended his stance on a ‘Brexit’, stating that it is his ‘duty’ to give an honest account on what the outcomes of the UK Referendum vote could have on the national economy.  BoE Governor Mark Carney Spoke before a House of Lords Committee on Thursday.

The Bank of England (BoE) has ostensibly been an independent organization since an act of government passed by the newly elected Blair administration in 1997. However, this does not stop politicians summoning leading BoE policymakers for grilling at Westminster with some regularity.

The session was marked by one such appearance, this time from the BoE’s present Governor Mark Carney before a House of Lords committee. The attendant Lords were particularly interested in Carney’s forecast for the potential effects of a vote to ‘leave’ the European Union by UK voters in the 23rd June In / Out Referendum.

The pound may lose one-quarter of its value if the U.K. votes to leave the European Union in its upcoming referendum, the head of a top London hedge fund told CNBC. “If there’s a ‘Brexit,’ the currency is going to fall a great deal from here; so estimates range, but 25 percent is a possible estimate,” Jonathan Martin, CEO and chief risk officer of London-based Markham Rae, told CNBC on Tuesday at the Investors Choice Awards.

Reuters said that data released on Thursday showed retail sales fell in March, another sign the British economy may be slowing. They came a day after data showed the number of unemployed in Britain rose for the first time since mid-2015 in the three months to February and wage growth slowed.

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Monday, April 25, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Apr 25 N/A UK 2.5% July 2065 Gilt (Syndicated tap)

Apr 25 11:35 Germany Eur 1.5bn Apr 2017 Bubill

Apr 26 11:10 Italy Holds BTPei auction

Apr 26 19:00 US Holds 2-year note auction

Apr 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Apr 27 11:10 Italy Holds CTZ auction

Apr 27 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Apr 27 19:00 US 2-year FRN, 5-year note auctions

Apr 28 11:10 Italy Holds 5yr/10yr bond auctions

Apr 28 19:00 US Holds 7-year note auction