GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 13, 2016

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Published: Sep 12, 2016, 11:38 GMT+00:00

The GBP/USD recovered 11 points as the greenback corrected after last week’s rally after several Federal Reserve speakers supported a rate increase sooner

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 13, 2016

The GBP/USD recovered 11 points as the greenback corrected after last week’s rally after several Federal Reserve speakers supported a rate increase sooner than later. The dollar soared weighing on its crosses. The pound otherwise is flat with no information on the calendar on Monday but Tuesday will be a big day in the UK with CPI and PPI. Worries that house prices would be sent tumbling on the back of Brexit uncertainty now look overblown with confidence among surveyors recovering.

The latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed that its member estate agents now expect house prices to rise 3.3 per cent a year on average for the next five years – the most confident prediction given in the survey since the referendum vote.

More than two-thirds of Britain’s smallest firms expect to see growth over the next six months despite concerns over Brexit, research has found.

The study by business support group Enterprise Nation, which polled 800 small companies and consulted dozens more through focus groups, found 68 per cent expect to expand in the final quarter of 2016. Of those, 59 per cent said they planned to boost profits by introducing new products or services.

Meanwhile, the latest small and medium enterprise finance report from market researcher BDRC Continental last week, covering the EU referendum campaign period, shows a continued fall in appetite for external loan and overdraft finance. Many SMEs preferred to self-fund, through retained profits, credit balances or trade credit, for example.

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September 13, 2016

CNY	FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) Y	2	4.3
AUD	RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech	2
CNY	Retail Sales Y	2	10.2	10.3
CNY	Industrial Production Y	2	6	6.1
EUR	Wholesale Price Index M	2	0.2
EUR	Wholesale Price Index Y	2	-1.4
EUR	Consumer Price Index Y	2	0.4	0.4
EUR	Index of Consumer Prices M	2	-0.1	-0.1
EUR	Index of Consumer Prices Y	2	0.3	0.3
EUR	Consumer Price Index M	2	0.1	0
GBP	Producer Price Index – Input M	2	3.3	0.5
GBP	Producer Price Index – Input Y	2	4.3	8.1
GBP	PPI Core Output Y	2	1	1.3
GBP	Producer Price Index – Output M	2	0.3	0.3
GBP	Producer Price Index – Output Y	2	0.3	1.1
GBP	PPI Core Output M	2	0.4	0.2
GBP	Consumer Price Index M	2	-0.1	0.4
GBP	Consumer Price Index Y	3	0.6	0.7
GBP	Core Consumer Price Index Y	3	1.3	1.4
EUR	ECB President Draghi’s Speech	3
EUR	ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment	3	4.6	6.7
EUR	ZEW Survey – Current Situation	2	57.6	56
EUR	ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment	2	0.5	2.5
USD	10-Year Note Auction	2	1.503
USD	Monthly Budget Statement	2	-113

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 13 11:00 Netherlands Eur 2-3bn 0% Jan 2022 DSL

Sep 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 I/L Gilt

Sep 14 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Jul 2044 Bund

Sep 15 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 15 11:50 France Holds bond auction

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