Outlook and Recommendation The GBP/USD closed the month at 160.10 slightly up for the month. The British pound (GBP) is expected to continue retracing
The GBP/USD closed the month at 160.10 slightly up for the month. The British pound (GBP) is expected to continue retracing losses sustained in 2008, supported by its triple-A rating, established fiscal plan and monetary policy, with the Bank of England likely to cease balance sheet expansion ahead of the Fed.
Highest: 1.6062 |
Lowest: 1.5962 |
Difference: 0.0100 |
Average: 1.6023 |
Change %: -0.14 |
Investor sentiment is increasingly bullish GBP. As of the end of November, CFTC traders held a US$1 billion net long position, while risk reversals suggest that the options market was positioned for GBP upside. Traders expect the GBP to appreciate in 2013, drive by investor inflows, a BoE that proves less aggressive than the Fed and improving data; however, on December 5th the Treasury will release the autumn budget, which will be a key determinant of the UK’s credit outlook. If the sovereign debt rating comes under threat, the GBP is likely to follow.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Central Bank – The Bank of England
Date of next meeting or last meeting: December 6, 2012
Current Rate: 0.50%
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 03 |
08:15 |
CHF |
4.1% |
5.4% |
|
|
08:30 |
CHF |
47.0 |
46.1 |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
51.3 |
51.7 |
|
Dec. 05 |
10:00 |
EUR |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
125K |
158K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
2.7% |
1.9% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.9% |
-0.1% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
53.5 |
54.2 |
|
Dec. 06 |
08:15 |
CHF |
0.1% |
||
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-8.8B |
-8.4B |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
0.9% |
-3.3% |
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
375B |
375B |
|
|
12:45 |
EUR |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
Dec. 07 |
09:30 |
GBP |
0.7% |
-1.7% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.6% |
-2.6% |
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
-0.5% |
-1.8% |