Current Elliott Wave Analysis
Gold has performed quite well in 2025 and needed a breather to consolidate recent gains.
The current decline appears to be a temporary correction with the longer-term pattern pointed higher.
The current Elliott wave appears to be a wave 4 decline. The pattern in development is an Elliott wave zigzag. This zigzag decline is relatively late in development as it appears to be declining in wave ((c)) of an ((a))-((b))-((c)) decline.
Wave ((b)) was a triangle pattern. With the first two waves of the pattern in place, we can use our Fibonacci tools to figure out some downside targets.
At 3,170 wave ((c)) is .618 times the length of wave ((a)). Price came close to it yesterday with today’s rally now testing the upper boundaries of the parallel price channel.
It is possible that yesterday’s low of 3,201 could be the end of wave ((c)). If Gold continues to rally above 3,320, then we’ll upgrade to wave ((c)) in place.
Otherwise, give this market room to breathe to lower levels will better geometry and harmony exist.
Additional downside targets include 3,070 and 2,960.
Once this wave 4 is in place, then a rally in wave 5 is anticipated to retest the April high and create new all-time highs.
Bottom Line
Gold is correcting lower in wave 4. We suspect wave 4 may continue lower to 3,170 with lower levels of 3,070 and 2,960 possible.
If gold materially breaks above the downward sloping resistance line of the parallel price channel and reaches 3,320, then we’ll reconsider the wave count such that the wave 4 decline may have ended on May 1.
Short-Term Bias: Bearish
Long-Term Bias: Bullish
Key Level for Bearish Short-Term Bias: $3,320
Initial Target: $3,170
Secondary Target: $3,070
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecastsThird Target: $2,960
