Gold Forecast – Breakout or Fake Out Update

Gold is approaching the upper triangle boundary. I get the sense prices may try to break higher before or just after the 2:00 PM Fed decision. Be prepared for increased volatility today and tomorrow.

The potential for a false breakout or violent swing is high. If gold were to break higher from the triangle pattern, I would need to see a robust close above $2000 to support a retest of the August $2089 high.

Intermediate Cycle

Gold is nowhere near cycle readings consistent with a traditional 6-month low. So, if prices do break higher, it would just an extension of the cycle that began in March – not a new intermediate rally. In this scenario, I would expect a cycle inversion and a peak by early October.

Emotions are high, and this is where traders make mistakes. Try to remain patient; the next buying opportunity will arrive when the gold cycle indicators drop below 100 (currently 297).

We should know within the next 48-hours if this is a bearish fake-out or a bullish short-term breakout. I’ll continue to update Premium members throughout the day.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information visit here.

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