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AG Thorson
Gold

Gold is in the later stages of a decline that began in August. Our Gold Cycle Indicator is below 100, supporting a near-term entry. Gold could dip below $1700 in December, as outlined in our recent gold update. However, we see sharply higher prices in 2021.

The 6-Month Gold Cycle

Gold goes through the same process (rally-top-decline) approximately every 6-months. With each phase, we see the following “emotional benchmarks.” Becoming aware of them could make you a better investor.

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75% of retail CFD investors lose money

  • Near the Cycle Top: Retail traders are overleveraged. They only read articles that confirm their outlook (confirmation bias). They devise reasons why prices can only go higher, enlisting the fear of missing out (FOMO).

 

  • Bearish Breakdown: A bearish breakdown arrives when critical support is violated, and retail traders rush to the exits to preserve profits or limit mounting losses. Often, extreme selling morphs into panic – retail traders turn bearish.

 

  • Near the Cycle Bottom: Everyone bullish 3-months ago is now finding reasons why prices will continue to drop. They read bearish articles supporting ever-lower prices. Prices bottom a few days/weeks later, and they are caught on the wrong side, once again.

With the recent breakdown below $1850, I believe gold is approaching a cycle bottom. The Gold Cycle Indicator and Educational Portfolio were designed to simplify investing via a long-term buy and hold strategy.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

 

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