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Barry Norman
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Gold Fundamental Analysis December 17, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold was directionless and flat today, trading at 1697.35 moving between very small losses and gains. The gold was little changed at USD 1,696.96 an ounce. It rose and fell 0.2 per cent today and is down 0.4 per cent this week. Silver rose 0.2 per cent to USD 32.58 an ounce. Gold is set for a third weekly drop even after the Federal Reserve said it will start buying USD 45 billion a month of treasuries, adding to USD 40 billion a month of existing mortgage-debt purchases. US President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner met to discuss averting more than USD 600 billion of spending cuts and tax increases before a year-end deadline, with no public announcement of progress. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products rose 3.9 metric tons to record 2,630 tons. Prices are set for a 12th consecutive annual gain as central banks from the US to China pledge more steps to spur economic growth. The US Fiscal Cliff still looms large as democrats and republican bicker over tax increases and budget cuts.

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FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 14

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.90

 

 

 

50.50 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.6

 

45.0 

 

44.5 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

 

47.2 

 

46.8 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

 

46.6 

 

46.2 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.5% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-1.40%

 

0.00% 

 

0.40% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.9% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

2.0% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 17 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-0.5 

-5.2 

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

3.3B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 17 10:10 Norway 

Dec 17 18:00 US 

Dec 18 01:30 Japan 

Dec 18 09:30 Spain 

Dec 18 10:10 Greece 

Dec 18 18:00 US 

Dec 19 18:00 US 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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