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Barry Norman
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Gold Fundamental Analysis December 21, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold tumbled again today trading at 1645.55 down over 20 dollars in the day’s trading. US budget deal talks turning sour intensified worries over the fiscal health of the world’s largest economy, puncturing the overall market sentiments. Equities and commodities were under pressure with the world shares retreating from a 17-month high as investors grew wary of the situation in the US. Although US watchers expected this kind of posturing and politicking up to the last minute, it is called the “blame game” as each side prepared for future battles they want to mark their positions so that at a later date they can find news clips or comments they made supporting either side of the results. Everyone is more concerned with their own personal agenda and future political career than the health of the government.

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Additional easing in Japan this morning also lowered the demand for gold, as the Bank of Japan did as expected but bucked Prime Minister elect Abe, saying that would consider his recommendations in January after he was actually in office.

Most of the day was filled with mixed data but nothing of notable important to gold traders, except rumors that Spain would request a bailout in Q1 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 20

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

 

 

-1.8% 

   

 

 

HKD

 

 

Hong Kong CPI (YoY) 

3.70%

 

3.90% 

 

3.80% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.7% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.9%

 

1.5% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.1% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

 

357K 

 

344K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

3.1%

 

2.8% 

 

2.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3225K

 

3199K 

 

3213K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

 

 

4.87M 

 

4.79M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

 

 

-3.0 

 

-10.7 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 21

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.9

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-14.0B

-20.8B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

1.0%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-0.2%

1.8%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.2%

0.5%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.3%

-0.2%

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.7

74.5

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

Dec 26 01:30 Japan 

Dec 27 10:10 Italy  

Dec 28 10:10 Italy 

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